FullyInformed.com

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Jun 30 2022 – Possible Rally Attempt But Still Lower

Jun 30, 2022 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook - Rally Attempt But Still Lower

Wednesday saw a sideways pattern develop on lighter volume as investors continued to review the outlook for a potential recession and inflation expectations. Fed Chair Powell spoke on Wednesday indicating that the Fed would do everything to bring inflation back to their target price. This didn’t seem to affect the trading.

The S&P lost 2 points and closed at 3,818.

The NASDAQ lost 3 points to close at 11,177.

Let’s review Wednesday’s closing technical indicators to see what to expect for Thursday. Thursday is an important day as investors get a number of inflation reports today.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Jun 29 2022 

On Wednesday the closing candlestick is bearish and signals a mixed outlook. The candlestick points to a potential attempt to rally perhaps to 3840 or 3850 but the close will still be lower on the day.

The Upper Bollinger Band is back falling and is ready to fall below the 200 day moving average. This is bearish and could signal the next move will be lower for the SPX.

All the moving averages are back falling.

The Lower Bollinger Band is still falling which is bearish.

The chart is more bearish for Thursday.

There are 4 down signals still in place and there have been no up signals since the start of April.

The chart is 90% bearish for Thursday. A close below 3800 is likely.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jun 29 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising slightly and positive. It is no longer oversold.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday June 27. On Wednesday the up signal was stronger The MACD histogram is positive for a third day.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic is falling.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4200 is light resistance

4150 is light resistance

4100 is light resistance

4050 is light resistance

4025 is light resistance

4000 is strong resistance

3975 is light resistance and is a decline of 17.5%

3900 is light resistance and is a decline of 19%

3850 is light resistance and is a decline of 20%

3825 is light support

3800 is good support.

3775 is light support

3750 is light support

3730 is light support

3700 is good support

3675 is light support

3650 is light support

3625 is light support

3600 is good support and is a decline of 25%


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Jun 30 2022 

For Thursday the technical indicators are more bearish than earlier in the week. While the closing candlestick still points to a possible bounce attempt yet again, it also indicates a lower day is ahead.

The Lower Bollinger Band falling rapidly and all major moving averages falling, signals that a move lower could be starting perhaps as soon as Wednesday. This is setting the index up to close below 3800 on Thursday especially as inflation readings on Thursday probably will not show a decline or that inflation has peaked, as many analysts have been advising.

Potential Market Moving Events

For the final week of June the biggest events are on Thursday when inflation reports are released. Any indication of even a slight slowing of inflation will see stocks rise. Any rise in inflation will send stocks lower.

Wednesday:

8:30 Gross domestic product revision came in at -1.6% which was near estimates of -1.5% and did not impact the market on Wednesday.

9:00 Fed Chair Powell speaks at ECB Conference. His speech did not impact the markets. Nothing new was said that investors are not already aware of.

Thursday:

8:30 PCE Inflation (monthly)

8:30 Core PCE Inflation (monthly)

8:30 PCE Inflation year-over-year

8:30 Core PCE Inflation year-over-year

8:30 Real disposable income

8:30 Real consumer spending

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims

9:45 Chicago PMI

Friday:

10:00 ISM manufacturing index

10:00 Construction Spending

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 28 2024 – Choppy – Dips Likely – But Higher

Stock Market Outlook Choppy Dips Higher
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors returned and snapped up stocks that had drifted lower. The SPX bounced at the open and by the close it was up 45 ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 27 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 27 2024 discuss the outlook for Wednesday and comments on a possible correction and what it might entail. There ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 27 2024 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

Stock Market Outlook Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal
Prior Trading Day Summary: I lost my power shortly after the markets closed. Articles this evening will be shorter if I can post any. On Tuesday trading volume picked up ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 26 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 26 2024 discuss the outlook for Tuesday. As well there are comments on support levels to watch in the ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 26 2024 – Still Bullish

Stock Market Outlook still bullish
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday low trading volumes hindered the chance of a positive close. The SPX saw just 3.4 billion shares traded. This matches the volume on last ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 25 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 25 2024 discuss the outlook for Monday and the shortened week ahead of the Easter holiday. There are a ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 25 2024 – Dip Likely But Higher Close

Stock Market Outlook - Higher
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors took profits ahead of the upcoming shortened Easter week with indexes sitting at all-time highs. On Friday the SPX closed down just 7 ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 22 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 22 2024 discuss the outlook for Friday. There are a large number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 22 2024 – Choppy – Dips Possible But Still Up

Stock Market Outlook Dip Likely But Still Up
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday all 3 indexes closed at new all-time highs for a second straight day. Volumes remained decent but stocks are seeing some selling as investors ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 21 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 21 2024 discuss the outlook for Thursday following Wednesday's FOMC interest rate decision and Fed Chair Powell's news conference. ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 21 2024 – Higher Still

Stock Market Outlook Higher Still
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday the SPX, Dow Jones and NASDAQ indexes all closed at new all-time highs. Comments from Fed Chair Powell reaffirming 3 rate cuts in 2024 ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 20 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 20 2024 discuss the outlook for Wednesday and the latest FOMC interest rate decision. There are also a number ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 20 2024 – All About The Fed – Bullish

All About The Fed
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the morning started with a dip down to 5131 but buyers were waiting for the dip and volumes picked up. Deep dips in a ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 19 2024

Morning Investing Strategy Notes
For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 19 2024 discuss the outlook for Tuesday following Monday's rally and before Wednesday's latest FOMC interest rate decision. There ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 19 2024 – Choppy Dips Likely But Still Up

Stock Market Outlook choppy dips like but up
Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday investors took advantage of the past two weeks of weakness to jump back into stocks. By the close the S&P was up 32 points ....... Read More

Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 28 2024 – Choppy – Dips Likely – But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors returned and snapped up stocks that had drifted lower. The SPX bounced at the open and by the close it was up 45 points to close at 5248. The NASDAQ rose 83 points …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 27 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 27 2024 discuss the outlook for Wednesday and comments on a possible correction and what it might entail. There are a number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 27 2024 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: I lost my power shortly after the markets closed. Articles this evening will be shorter if I can post any. On Tuesday trading volume picked up as stocks fell for another day. The SPX closed near …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 26 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 26 2024 discuss the outlook for Tuesday. As well there are comments on support levels to watch in the SPX for the week. There are a number of trade …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 26 2024 – Still Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday low trading volumes hindered the chance of a positive close. The SPX saw just 3.4 billion shares traded. This matches the volume on last Friday. While poor , it is also bullish as it …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 25 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 25 2024 discuss the outlook for Monday and the shortened week ahead of the Easter holiday. There are a number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock (FDX), Nike …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 25 2024 – Dip Likely But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors took profits ahead of the upcoming shortened Easter week with indexes sitting at all-time highs. On Friday the SPX closed down just 7 points to 5234. For the week the index was up …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 22 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 22 2024 discuss the outlook for Friday. There are a large number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock (FDX), Nike Stock (NKE), Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU),  and more …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 22 2024 – Choppy – Dips Possible But Still Up

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday all 3 indexes closed at new all-time highs for a second straight day. Volumes remained decent but stocks are seeing some selling as investors are taking a few profits with the indexes at new …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 21 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 21 2024 discuss the outlook for Thursday following Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision and Fed Chair Powell’s news conference. There are a large number of trade ideas outlined including …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 21 2024 – Higher Still

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday the SPX, Dow Jones and NASDAQ indexes all closed at new all-time highs. Comments from Fed Chair Powell reaffirming 3 rate cuts in 2024 were still “on the table” was all that investors needed …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 20 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 20 2024 discuss the outlook for Wednesday and the latest FOMC interest rate decision. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Chewy Stock (CHWY), SPY ETF, …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 20 2024 – All About The Fed – Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the morning started with a dip down to 5131 but buyers were waiting for the dip and volumes picked up. Deep dips in a number of big caps like NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) found ready …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 19 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 19 2024 discuss the outlook for Tuesday following Monday’s rally and before Wednesday’s latest FOMC interest rate decision. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Chevron …