Tuesday saw another new intraday high at 3127.64 but the close was negative with a slight loss of 1.85 to end the day at 3120.18.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Tue Nov 19 2019
The SPX chart is still bullish, but the chart looks like Wednesday may see a bit more weakness and another slightly lower close. The closing candlestick on Tuesday is bearish for Wednesday.
3030 is still light support. All the major moving averages are climbing including the 50 and 21 day moving averages. The 21 day moving average is still rising above the 3030 level which is bullish. The 50 day is above the 3000 level which is also bullish and is approaching the 3030 level. Normally a dip or a day or two of negative closes should occur as the 50 day approaching this support level.
The Lower Bollinger Band has moved above the 100 day moving average which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are still rising.
The two buy signals from September are still in place.
Overall the chart remains bullish but a pause in the rally is expected for Wednesday.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is positive and moving sideways.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Oct 15 2019. The up signal was losing strength again on Tuesday.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is rising and signaling overbought.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic is extremely overbought and has an up signal in place.
- Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is overbought and falling.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is dipping back.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
3100 is resistance
3030 in light support
3000 is support
2960 is light support
2950 was light support
2900 is light support
2860 is light support
2840 is support
2800 is strong support
2795 is light support
2745 to 2750 is light support
2725 is light support
2700 is light support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Nov 20 2019
The technical indicators are very overbought and a number have changed their outlook from up to down.
Those indicators that have turned lower, coupled with the closing bearish candlestick for Wednesday should result in a slightly lower close.