On Friday the S&P and NASDAQ made new all-time intraday highs and closed almost at those highs. The Dow Jones closed within a handful of points of its all-time high. The Dow Transports made a new high and the Russell 2000 made a new all-time high.
Friday marked the end of September, which is often the worst month of the year for equities. This year, for the first time in 4 years, the index closed up for September.
S&P 500 Index Close
The S&P index ended up 9.30 to 2519.36
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones ended up 23.89 to 22,405.09
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed up 42.51 to 6495.96
Stock Market Outlook
Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Sep 28 2017
Chart Comments At The Close:
The S&P on Friday moved higher and ended the day with a bullish candlestick. Usually this candlestick signals that we should expect some weakness in the morning, but the close should see the S&P positive.
The 21 day is continuing to climb. The 50 day is moving sideways which could prove problematic for the first week of October and needs to be watched to start the week.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to rise which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moving rapidly higher so we could see a Bollinger Bands Squeeze by early in the week. We will know more shortly.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is positive and rising.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on Aug 31. The buy signal was stronger on Friday after being weak for a number of days during the last week of September.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and moving back toward being overbought.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is overbought.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. The rate of change signal is not climbing but trending sideways which indicates that prices are not expected to see big changes over the next several days.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
The S&P is trying to build support at 2480. It has light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. There is also light support at 2400, 2380, 2350 and 2300.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Monday Oct 2 2017
For Monday investors should be prepared for some weakness in the morning. That weakness though, could be an opportunity to place more trades as I am expecting a green afternoon and a green or positive close.
With indicators now moving into overbought signals, we should expected to see a bit more choppiness in trading. That though could be highly advantageous for those investors looking for volatility to trade against.
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