Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Friday the SPX had a flat day, losing just 2 points to close at 5431. However 75% of all volume was being traded lower and 66% of all stocks on the index were falling.
The NASDAQ squeezed out a small gain of 21 points to close at 17688 another new closing high. Just as we saw on the SPX, volume was heavily negative with 57% of all traded to the downside and 67% of all stocks falling.
Friday was the second day of weakness on the indexes but for the week, the S&P closed up 84 points, the best weekly gain since the first week of May. The NASDAQ rose 555 points for the best weekly gain since the fourth week of April.
Let review the closing technical signals from Fri Jun 14 2024 to see what to expect for Mon Jun 17 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Fri Jun 14 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average and at the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish and signals overbought.
The closing candlestick is neutral and indicates a dip is likely on Monday with a potential lower close.
The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.
The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4897 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5116.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 50 day moving average but will probably fall below it shortly. The Upper Bollinger Band is turned higher. Both are starting to signal an end to the latest Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
The S&P chart is bullish but the closing candlestick is warning of dips and a possible lower close on Monday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Fri Jun 14 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Jun 6 2024. On Fri Jun 14 2024 the up signal was stronger. The MACD histogram gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place and is overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling that Monday will end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5465 is resistance |
| 5450 is resistance |
| 5425 is resistance |
| 5400 is resistance |
| 5375 is resistance |
| 5350 is resistance |
| 5325 is resistance |
| 5310 is resistance |
| 5300 is resistance |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is light support |
| 5225 is light support |
| 5200 is good support |
| 5190 is light support |
| 5175 is light support |
| 5150 is support |
| 5125 is support |
| 5115 is support |
| 5100 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Mon Jun 17 2024
For Monday the rally looks set to pause, at least in the morning, as stocks are overbought and the technical indicators are showing more weakness.
Wednesday this week is a holiday marking Juneteenth. Stocks may turn sideways heading into the holiday and then pick up some strength after Wednesday but for Monday signals are warning of dips as the majority of stocks and trading volume has turned decidedly negative as of late last week.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
The biggest economic events this week are retail sales on Tuesday and PMI numbers on Friday.
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey is expected to rise to -10.5 from -15.6 prior