Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 2 2022 – All About Jobs

 

All About The Non-Farm Payroll Report

As expected Thursday morning saw stocks dip and then recover slightly into the close. The technical indicators after the close on Thursday show that investors are on hold after Wednesday’s big afternoon jump as they wait for Friday’s jobs numbers.

Although Friday, especially the morning, will be all about the November non-farm payroll report, let’s review the closing SPX technical indicators from Thursday to see if if the technical indicators show Wednesday’s afternoon rally will reboot on Friday.

Black Friday Sale Ends Today At Midnight

The Black Friday Sale ends today at midnight. Original prices return on Saturday. This is the last chance to enjoy some exceptional discounts.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Dec 1 2022 

On Thursday the S&P closing candlestick ended the day above the 200 day moving average. The candlestick is bearish for Friday.

The closing candlestick is above all the moving averages which is bullish.

The Upper Bollinger Band crossed above the 200 day on Wednesday November 16 which is a bullish signal. On Thursday it continued to climb.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower which often signals a larger move higher could be coming.

A second up signal was generated on Wednesday with the 21 day moving just above the 100 day. This ended the down signal from Oct 14 which you can see has been removed from the chart.

The first up signal was Friday Nov 11 when the 21 day moving average moved above the 50 day.

The 50 and 100 day moving averages are starting to turn higher. The 200 day is trending sideways.

There are now 4 down signals in place since April 24 and two up signals.

The chart is 75% bullish for Friday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Dec 1 2022

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday Oct 16. On Thursday the up signal gained a bit of strength but is still weak. The histogram has also lost much of its strength.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged and on the verge of overbought signals.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is still overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4150 is resistance

4120 is resistance

4100 is resistance

4090 is resistance

4070 is resistance

4050 is resistance

4030 is resistance

4025 is resistance

4000 is resistance

3975 is resistance

3965 is resistance

3950 is good support

3925 is light support

3900 is good support


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Dec 2 2022 

For Friday the technical indicators are primarily unchanged from Wednesday close which is bullish. The non-farm payroll numbers for November will have to be truly awful to see stocks tumble lower.

Overall the signals are holding a strong bias to the upside. A higher close on Friday is expected.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

On Friday we get the November non-farm payroll numbers. This is often a market moving event.

Friday:

8:30 November non-farm payroll numbers

8:30 Unemployment rate

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