FullyInformed.com

Market Direction Outlook For April 16 2015 – Bias Is Up

Apr 15, 2015 | Stock Market Outlook

The Market Direction Outlook for the SPX for Wednesday Apr 15 2015 was for the day to be a key day. In yesterday’s Market Direction Outlook I explained that stocks had to get going and move higher or risk the market moving lower.  While it is obvious that there was no heavy consolidation at the 2100 level, stocks were having trouble partly due to lower volumes. Today stocks moved convincing higher although they did give back quite a lot of the day’s morning rally.

Advance Decline for Apr 15 2015

Volume finally picked up on Wednesday with 4 billion shares traded, a huge jump from Tuesday and Monday of this week. Up volume was 68% of all trades but new highs were just 106. New lows though were just 6. New lows this small almost always indicate consolidation.

Market Direction Closings For Apr 15 2015

The S&P closed at 2106.63 up 10.79. The Dow closed at 18,112.61 up 75.91.  The NASDAQ closed at 5011.02 up 33.73.

Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of Apr 15 2015

Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of Apr 15 2015 on the S&P 500 and view the market direction outlook for Apr 16 2015.

Market Direction Technical Analysis for Apr 15 2015

Market Direction Technical Analysis for Apr 15 2015

Stock Chart Comments:

The most significant event today was the SPX deciding to move higher from the outset and staying up. As well the 20 day simple moving average (SMA) has fallen to the 50 day moving average.

Support and Resistance Levels:

These are the present support and resistance levels.

2100 was very light support and is now resistance. Stocks will have to stay above it to change it back to support.

2075 is light support. Below that is 2050 which is also light support. Stronger support is at 2000 which has repeatedly held the market up throughout each pullback in January and February.

Weak support is at 1970. Stronger support is at 1956.

1870 and 1840 are both levels with strong enough support to delay the market falling and should see a sideways action attempt while investors decide whether to sell or buy.

The other two support levels are 1775 and 1750. I have explained that these two are critical support for the present bull market. While 1775 is important it is 1750 that is the bottom line.

A break of 1750 would mark a severe correction from the most recent high. This would be the biggest correction since April 2012. A pull-back of that size would definitely stun investors and bring to question whether the bull market is finished.

Momentum: For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum is positive and back climbing.

MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on Apr 9 and that signal rose again today.

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and moving higher as it reaches an overbought state.

Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The Rate Of Change is not moving higher but trending either sideways or slightly lower. This indicator is not signaling for the rally to continue.

Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The slow stochastic is still pointing up for stocks.

Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is also pointing up for stocks.

Market Direction Outlook for Apr 16 2015

Once again the technical indicators in general are still pointing higher but selling pressure continues to grow.

With the S&P now up to within a short distance of the all-time high, stocks look set to turn at least sideways on Thursday but the bias is higher and I think the S&P will close higher on Thursday.

Stay FullyInformed With Email Updates

    Your First Name (required)

    Your Email (required)

    Anti-Spam: Please Answer This Math Question

    I will send you a reply to confirm that you want to subscribe before sending any emails.


    Market Direction Internal Links

    Profiting From Understanding Market Direction (Articles Index)

    How I Use Market Timing

    How I Use Market Timing

    Understanding Short-Term Signals

    Various Market Timing Systems

    Market Direction Portfolio Trades (Members)

    Market Direction External Links

    Market Direction

    IWM ETF Russell 2000 Fund Info

    Market Direction SPY ETF 500 Fund Info

    Search

    Select to view all results...

    Generic selectors
    Exact matches only
    Search in title
    Search in content
    Post Type Selectors

    Recent Outlooks

    Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 28 2024 – Choppy – Dips Likely – But Higher

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors returned and snapped up stocks that had drifted lower. The SPX bounced at the open and by the close it was up 45 points to close at 5248. The NASDAQ rose 83 points …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 27 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 27 2024 discuss the outlook for Wednesday and comments on a possible correction and what it might entail. There are a number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock …

    Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 27 2024 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

    Prior Trading Day Summary: I lost my power shortly after the markets closed. Articles this evening will be shorter if I can post any. On Tuesday trading volume picked up as stocks fell for another day. The SPX closed near …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 26 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 26 2024 discuss the outlook for Tuesday. As well there are comments on support levels to watch in the SPX for the week. There are a number of trade …

    Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 26 2024 – Still Bullish

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday low trading volumes hindered the chance of a positive close. The SPX saw just 3.4 billion shares traded. This matches the volume on last Friday. While poor , it is also bullish as it …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 25 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 25 2024 discuss the outlook for Monday and the shortened week ahead of the Easter holiday. There are a number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock (FDX), Nike …

    Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 25 2024 – Dip Likely But Higher Close

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors took profits ahead of the upcoming shortened Easter week with indexes sitting at all-time highs. On Friday the SPX closed down just 7 points to 5234. For the week the index was up …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 22 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 22 2024 discuss the outlook for Friday. There are a large number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock (FDX), Nike Stock (NKE), Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU),  and more …

    Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 22 2024 – Choppy – Dips Possible But Still Up

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday all 3 indexes closed at new all-time highs for a second straight day. Volumes remained decent but stocks are seeing some selling as investors are taking a few profits with the indexes at new …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 21 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 21 2024 discuss the outlook for Thursday following Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision and Fed Chair Powell’s news conference. There are a large number of trade ideas outlined including …

    Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 21 2024 – Higher Still

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday the SPX, Dow Jones and NASDAQ indexes all closed at new all-time highs. Comments from Fed Chair Powell reaffirming 3 rate cuts in 2024 were still “on the table” was all that investors needed …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 20 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 20 2024 discuss the outlook for Wednesday and the latest FOMC interest rate decision. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Chewy Stock (CHWY), SPY ETF, …

    Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 20 2024 – All About The Fed – Bullish

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the morning started with a dip down to 5131 but buyers were waiting for the dip and volumes picked up. Deep dips in a number of big caps like NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) found ready …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 19 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 19 2024 discuss the outlook for Tuesday following Monday’s rally and before Wednesday’s latest FOMC interest rate decision. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Chevron …