History Repeats Itself – Stock Market Outlook Midday Analysis for Wed Nov 24 2021


Yesterday as the SPX was testing the 21 day moving average, I wrote how history shows the first two trading days of the Thanksgiving week have often been lower. As explained, there is an old adage that says, “buy the weakness and sell the strength” used to describe the Thanksgiving week.

What we are seeing today is history repeating itself. This has been the case since I started investing in the mid-1970’s, for 95% of the time. Friday should also be higher. It is a half day.

Today the market opened exactly as expected with another drop. This was a final attempt by investors, particularly fund and professional traders to shake out weaker retail investors. From that point they began to buy and as the stats below show, buying has been steady.

New York Stats:

Volume is still heavy considering it is the day before Thanksgiving holiday. 2.1 billion shares have traded hands as the lunch hour ends.

New lows have fallen to half of yesterday at this time with 81 new lows. There are 55 new highs, which is rising as the index recovers.

Volume has switched from yesterday with 57% of all volume trading higher and 49% of all stocks rising. Down volume is 39% with 40 of all stocks falling.


Volume is heavier on the NASDAQ again with 2.7 billion shares traded. That just 500 million less shares traded which is excellent considering this is the day before Thanksgiving holiday.

New lows are half of yesterday at 264 while new highs are a bit lower at just 50.

Volume though is 70% to the upside with 29% to the downside. This is a significant reversal from the past two days of selling.

52% of all stocks are advancing while 38% are falling. Again this is a reversal to yesterday when 60% of all stocks were falling and only 31% were rising.


Both the NASDAQ and the SPX have a good chance to end in the green.
TSX Composite Index – Canadian Stock Market Outlook
For those who follow the smaller Canadian Market, the TSX is doing well. After very minor losses for the past two days, the index is up 87 points to 21,540.
Volume is low at 176 million shares traded and 57% of volume is buying with 38% selling.
40% of stocks are rising while 45% are falling.
Canadian bank stocks are mixed with some advancing and most flat to slightly negative. There is no concern on the bank stocks.
Most major energy stocks are rising again on the TSX with Suncor up 1.8% to $33.61.  Yesterday I sold a large quantity for Dec 17 expiry at the $28 put strike.
Alimentation Couche-Tard Stock (ATD.B) is down 5.5% after boosting its dividend 26% despite reporting weaker quarter earnings. They earned 65 cents a share down from 68 cents for the same quarter last year. For Dec 17 Expiry I am selling the $45 put strike but the stock could fall that low so stay cautious. I would own shares and have owned shares in the past.
The outlook remains bullish for the TSX Composite Index. Tomorrow will see very low volume as the USA markets are closed.  Friday will be higher.
Black Friday Membership Special Starts Thursday
Don’t forget that the Black Friday sale on memberships starts Thursday. You should see the special posted later tonight. It runs until Monday.
Enjoy your afternoon!

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Disclaimer: There are risks involved in all investment strategies and investors can and do lose capital. Trade at your own risk. Stocks, options and investing are risky and can result in considerable losses. None of the strategies, stocks or information discussed and presented are financial or trading advice or recommendations. Everything presented and discussed are the author’s own trade ideas and opinions which the author may or may not enter into. The author assumes no liability for topics, ideas, errors, omissions, content and external links and trades done or not done. The author may or may not enter the trades mentioned. Some positions in mentioned stocks may already be held or are being adjusted.

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