FullyInformed Polls – 2011

To vote in the latest poll go to the home page and you will find the poll in the far right column under the heading “FullyInformed Latest Poll”.

FullyInformed Latest Poll

To cast your vote in the latest poll go to my homepage, far right column and look for the above heading.

I commenced Polls on my site starting in October 2011. This page will serve as an archive of past polls for 2011. I felt polls were a good way for readers to express their opinions about various stock market and world events. I believe opinions are important since often the opinions expressed are shared by an equal number of non-participating readers.

Below is the chart for the S&P500 for the year as of November 4 2011. I will update this chart again at the end of the year and keep it on the 2011 Poll page as a reminder to readers of the events of 2011.

Fullyinformed Polls - Dec 31 2010 to Nov 4 2008 S&P Chart

S&P 500 chart - Dec 31 2010 to Nov 4 2008


Fullyinformed Polls - Oct Poll

Oct 2011 Poll Question and Results

October 2011 – 1st Poll

This was the first poll I presented on my website. In July 2011 the stock market turned down after setting a new yearly high in May 2 and then turned down. In my opinion a bear market started and I posted my first poll questioning readers where they felt the market would end up by the end of the year.

A total of 184 votes were cast with the majority, 48% indicating that the S&P 500 would stay sideways until the end of the year. The next highest group was at 26% who could not decide where the market would end up. This is interesting as over a quarter of those polled could not decide where the stock market would end the year, showing the volatility in the market and the stress on the market being imposed by the ongoing European debt crisis.

The last largest votes was 15% who felt that the S&P might retest the Oct 2008 lows before Dec 31 2011. Those lows in October 2008 occured on the 10th of October when the S&P 500 touched 839.80 on the index.

My Vote – Market Will Stay Sideways Until Year End

My own personal opinion was that there was a good chance that the S&P might touch 1000 and then staging a rally back to around 1100 by year end.

I myself see no reasons that will drive the market to new highs by the end of December 31 but usually a Santa Claus rally ensues into December. Presently I am using the cautious bull strategy for investing for the balance of this year and probably into 2012.

I can see the market trying to rise into December and then moving lower in January 2012.

Below is the S&P500 stock chart for the fall of 2008. The low for 2008 was in November when the market hit a low of 741.02

Fullyinformed Polls - S&P500 Stock Chart Fall 2008

S&P 500 Stock Chart for Fall 2008


FullyInformed.com - November 2011 PollNovember 2011 Poll

November’s poll looks at Greece and what readers thought was going to happen. It was an interesting vote for the month and while the majority, 22% felt that markets would muddle through and stay basically sideways, 17% were expecting a crash and there was an even split between those who felt there would be a default and those who felt Greece would leave the European Union and the markets would move lower.

Only 10% of votes cast believed there would be no default by Greece and the markets would move up.

The Greece situation to date is dangerous, to say the least. When investors buy bonds they do so based on the belief that bonds are conservative and while they may earn a small interest percentage, their capital is safe and will be returned.

The news that Greece will not be able to repay bond holders all their capital seems to somehow have been lost on the investing markets. While it is true that Greece does not owe as much as Italy, they still will cost bond holders hundreds of billions of dollars in losses when they present their “haircut” to bond holders.

In my opinion this is devastating news and I am not surprised at the performance of European Stock and bond markets in the fall.

When I invest my hard earned capital in a bond I expect to have my capital returned. Interest paid on bonds is absolutely terrible. However their appeal is that my capital will be returned. I cannot imagine having invested in a bond and then be told that I am going to take a 50% to perhaps as much as 80% capital loss on the bond.

I may as well have bought Bank of America or Citicorp in such a case.

For the month of November my vote would have been Default, Market Down. I still do believe that the announcement of the Greek bond “haircut” is a default in every sense of the word.

DePoll Results Fully Informed For December 2011cember 2011 POLL

December’s poll ended Dec 20 and the results are pretty well where I had thought they would be. The overall outlook among those readers who cast a vote was for the market to stay range bound. The S&P closed on Dec 24 2011 at 1265.33 so it remains range bound. However the last 4 days have been interesting as the market finally moved back up perhaps in preparation for an end of year rally, commonly referred to as the Santa Rally.

One thing that must be said about the Santa Rally is don’t believe the myth that if there is no Santa Rally then bears take over. This is nonsense and if studied carefully an investor can see that it has absolutely no truth.

When this poll first opened most readers who cast a ballot were bearish with most voting for the 1200 – 1250. However by the last week when the market started higher, more readers voted for the 1250 to 1300 range and some even voted for 1300 – 1350.

The year is not over yet, so it will be interesting to view where the year ends up at the close of next week. If the rally continues the S&P could possibly break above 1300. I will update this poll after the year ends.