The Market Direction Outlook for the Toronto Stock Exchange for Monday was for weakness unless the US dollar falls and oil rises. Instead the extreme oversold condition aided to move the index higher. As well more investors are of the opinion that analysts are wrong and the Federal Reserve in the US will not raise rates this Spring. Combine that with a belief that in April the Bank Of Canada will reduce its interest rate to half a percent and the groundwork was laid for the market to rally. With the US dollar sitting at 10 year highs, many investors and a growing number of analysts believe an increase in the interest rate in the US would be damaging to the economy as they believe it will push the US dollar higher and hurt the ongoing recovery.
With all the above in play, even the drop of oil to $43.88 couldn’t stop the overall rally, although the energy sector did not participate in the rally. With a growing belief that interest rates are not going to move higher, investors were back buying interest rate sensitive stocks. This meant Banks and Financials rose as did Utilities and Telecoms. All of these pay high dividends and are attractive in a low-interest rate environment. But is this just a bounce or is it the start of another rally?
The rest of this TSX Market Direction Outlook article is for FullyInformed Canada members.
For FullyInformed Canada members, here is the Market Direction Outlook for the Toronto Stock Exchange for March 17 2015.
TSX Market Direction Outlook for March 17 2015
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