FullyInformed.com

Stock Market Outlook for Mar 23 2017 – Bounce Likely

Mar 23, 2017 | Stock Market Outlook

bounce-stock-market-outlookWednesday Mar 22 was quite the day again for stocks. The morning saw stocks fall at the open as investors continued the selling from the day before. However the volume numbers were low and selling as a market breadth percentage was low. Stocks turned around and moved higher before a terrorist incident unnerved investors again. They bailed once more but within a short while they regained their composure and pushed stocks back up. The close saw the S&P and NASDAQ with slight gains and the Dow with just a slight loss.

Let’s look at the closings on Wednesday and then take a technical overview.

S&P Index Close

The S&P index ended the day up 4/43 points to close at 2,348.45

Dow Jones Index Close

The Dow Jones ended down 6.71 points to close at 20,661.30.

NASDAQ Index Close

The NASDAQ closed up 27.82 points to end the day at 5,821.64.



Stock Market Outlook

Chart Comments At The Close:

On Wednesday Mar 22 2017 the S&P fell to the 50 day moving average in the early morning trading and then bounced back up. Technically this is a common event and could signal the end of the selling from Tuesday or it could just be a delay and a bounce attempt.

What is important is the closing candlestick often signals a short-term reversal in the trend which could mean the market is about to recover the prior day’s losses.

At the same time the market also closed just below the important 2350 level which is light support but is also symbolic of the present rally.

All the major moving averages are still climbing but the 21 day short-term moving average is pulling back. Stocks re also into the Bollinger Bands Squeeze. Yesterday the decline pushed the S&P outside the Lower Bollinger Band. Today the index closed back at the Lower Bollinger Band. Normally this is a bullish sign but one day selloffs often have a second day of weakness.That could have been Wednesday morning, or it might be Thursday or Friday of this week.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mar 22 2017

Stock Market Outlook review of Mar 22 2017

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:

Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is negative but trying to climb back.

MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal Mar 7 2017. At the close of trading on Wednesday the sell signal is stronger.

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is negative and falling. It is near oversold readings but has lots of room to fall lower if more selling starts.

Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is nearing oversold readings.

Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present.  The rate of change signal is extremely oversold and has a strong negative reading. Readings this low are often followed by a bounce back.

Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.  The RSI signal is low at $29.30 and showing some signs it wants to climb higher.

Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings, but settings I use for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic has an down signal in place and it too is nearing oversold signals.


Support Levels To Be Aware Of:

The market has light support at the 2350, 2300 and the 2250 level.  There is also light support at 2195 but better support is at 2180 and then 2150.


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thurs Mar 23 2017

The technical indicators are all negative but many are showing signs of being oversold or nearing oversold levels. They are also showing signs of an impending attempt to move back up.

After a sell-off as strong as Tuesday’s, normally we should get a bounce back. Wednesday did not see that much of a bounce. Part of the reason could have been the result of the terrorist attack in London. This probably delayed the bounce.

The chance of a bounce on Thursday is probably better than it was on Wednesday. After the bounce we could see weakness develop again. A lot depends on the Healthcare Bill. If it fails to pass, more selling is likely.


Stay FullyInformed With Email Updates

    Your First Name (required)

    Your Email (required)

    Anti-Spam: Please Answer This Math Question

    I will send you a reply to confirm that you want to subscribe before sending any emails.


     Market Direction Internal Links

    Profiting From Understanding Market Direction (Articles Index)

    How I Use Market Timing

    How I Use Market Timing

    Understanding Short-Term Signals

    Various Market Timing Systems

    Market Direction Portfolio Trades (Members)

    Market Direction External Links

    Market Direction

    IWM ETF Russell 2000 Fund Info

    Market Direction SPY ETF 500 Fund Info

     

    Search

    Select to view all results...

    Generic selectors
    Exact matches only
    Search in title
    Search in content
    Post Type Selectors

    Recent Outlooks

    Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 28 2024 – Choppy – Dips Likely – But Higher

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors returned and snapped up stocks that had drifted lower. The SPX bounced at the open and by the close it was up 45 points to close at 5248. The NASDAQ rose 83 points …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 27 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 27 2024 discuss the outlook for Wednesday and comments on a possible correction and what it might entail. There are a number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock …

    Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 27 2024 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

    Prior Trading Day Summary: I lost my power shortly after the markets closed. Articles this evening will be shorter if I can post any. On Tuesday trading volume picked up as stocks fell for another day. The SPX closed near …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 26 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 26 2024 discuss the outlook for Tuesday. As well there are comments on support levels to watch in the SPX for the week. There are a number of trade …

    Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 26 2024 – Still Bullish

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday low trading volumes hindered the chance of a positive close. The SPX saw just 3.4 billion shares traded. This matches the volume on last Friday. While poor , it is also bullish as it …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 25 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 25 2024 discuss the outlook for Monday and the shortened week ahead of the Easter holiday. There are a number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock (FDX), Nike …

    Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 25 2024 – Dip Likely But Higher Close

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors took profits ahead of the upcoming shortened Easter week with indexes sitting at all-time highs. On Friday the SPX closed down just 7 points to 5234. For the week the index was up …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 22 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 22 2024 discuss the outlook for Friday. There are a large number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock (FDX), Nike Stock (NKE), Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU),  and more …

    Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 22 2024 – Choppy – Dips Possible But Still Up

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday all 3 indexes closed at new all-time highs for a second straight day. Volumes remained decent but stocks are seeing some selling as investors are taking a few profits with the indexes at new …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 21 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 21 2024 discuss the outlook for Thursday following Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision and Fed Chair Powell’s news conference. There are a large number of trade ideas outlined including …

    Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 21 2024 – Higher Still

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday the SPX, Dow Jones and NASDAQ indexes all closed at new all-time highs. Comments from Fed Chair Powell reaffirming 3 rate cuts in 2024 were still “on the table” was all that investors needed …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 20 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 20 2024 discuss the outlook for Wednesday and the latest FOMC interest rate decision. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Chewy Stock (CHWY), SPY ETF, …

    Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 20 2024 – All About The Fed – Bullish

    Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the morning started with a dip down to 5131 but buyers were waiting for the dip and volumes picked up. Deep dips in a number of big caps like NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) found ready …

    Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 19 2024

    For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 19 2024 discuss the outlook for Tuesday following Monday’s rally and before Wednesday’s latest FOMC interest rate decision. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Chevron …