Thursday Mar 9 2017 was another see-saw day for the markets which by the end of the day saw the indexes virtually unchanged on the day. Considering all the movement on Thursday, unchanged is actually “pretty good”. Friday we get the February jobs numbers. This time around it’s hard to say what impact they may have on the markets. Overall most investors are expecting strong jobs number, but whether it adds any further reasons to raise interest rates is doubtful. Fed Chair Janet Yellen, seems ready to bump rates next week, no matter what the jobs numbers tell us.
Let’s look at the closings on Thursday and then take a technical overview.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index ended the day flat at 1.89 points higher to close at 2364.87
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones ended up 2.46 points to close at 20,858.19.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed up 1.262 points to end the day at 5,838.81
Stock Market Outlook
Chart Comments At The Close:
Stock Market Outlook review of Mar 9 2017
On Thursday Mar 9 2017 the S&P traded still lower below the Upper Bollinger Band and reached the 2355 level and then bounced off the Middle Bollinger Band,
The bounce was fairly good and might set the market up for a further bounce on Friday depending on the strength of the jobs numbers.
The closing candlestick is signaling a possible change may occur on Friday.
The Lower Bollinger Band is almost at the 50 day moving average and if it moves above it, it will be a bearish signal for the market.
The major moving averages are all still climbing which is bullish.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum is moving sideways still.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal Mar 7 2017. At the close of trading today the sell signal was still in play.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator bounced with the market today and is back positive.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. The rate of change signal is positive but moving sideways which indicates prices are not expected to fall much further.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has started to turn back up.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings, but settings I use for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochastic has a down signal in place.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
A bounce is possible off 2355 which is the 21 day moving average should the market fall that low. We saw such a bounce today off the 2355 level.
The market has light support at the 2300 and the 2250 level. There is also light support at 2195 but better support is at 2180 and then 2150.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Friday Mar 10 2017
The technical indicators didn’t weaken much on Thursday. There are no overbought signals left in the market as well. There are some signals, as you read in the technical overview, that are turning up slightly.
For Friday, the jobs numbers will have some impact, especially if they are over 300,000. That could be rather bearish for the market. Overall though the market looks like it might try to bounce on Friday.
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