Market Direction Outlook For Nov 1 2012

Market direction today was pretty unexciting. I felt that we could see a market direction bounce and then some whipsawing action after two days of closure but the most whipsawing was the Dow rising and then selling off to close down 10.75. The S&P market direction was somewhat uneventful closing up less than 1 point. The NASDAQ however moved down into the lunch hour and then tried to climb back, still closing down 10.72. In other words the NASDAQ continues to signal market lower as tech stocks continue to fall.

Apple Stock and Market Direction

Apple stock is taking its toll on the NASDAQ market direction dragging it lower daily. Apple Stock fell to $587.70 before climbing back to $595.32 down another $8.68 and below the psychological $600 level. The stock is very oversold but that hasn’t stopped Apple Stock from continuing to fall. Now though Apple Stock is heading into a better level of support built up over much of this year. I have marked that level below. This could help the NASDAQ index to slow its descent. If the NASDAQ breaks through the 200 day moving average I will be moving covered calls lower. Remember the article on handling a market correction.

Apple Stock 2012

Apple Stock from Jan to Oct 2012

S&P Market Direction

The market direction of the S&P is also a bit worrisome with this being the 4 day of sideways. Normally this kind of move is followed by a move lower. The 10 day moving average has now crossed the 20 and 30 day signaling a move lower. The market needs more confidence from investors to push the market direction higher.

Market Direction S&P 500

Market Direction on the S&P 500

Market Timing Technical Indicators

The market timing technical indicators continue to reflect the market direction under pressure. Momentum is almost unchanged from Friday’s close as is MACD.

The Ultimate Oscillator however is lower and still bearish but it is not signalling oversold.

Rate Of Change took a big dip today as it signals lower.

The Slow Stochastic is very oversold but signaling that the market direction should move up.

The Fast Stochastic is also very oversold and it too is signaling that the market direction should move up, confirming that the short-term trend should be higher.

Market Direction Technical Indicators

Market Direction Technical Indicators

Market Direction Outlook For November 1

Tomorrow marks the beginning of November and historically the beginning of the best six months for stocks. Today the markets may have gone nowhere as investors digested the past two days of closure and didn’t want to be caught in any big down swing. When this didn’t happen but the upturn was small, many investors may have stayed on the sidelines. I know a lot of my investor friends sat on the sidelines today to see what would happen. Perhaps then tomorrow will give us a better market direction outlook. Right now the market direction from the slow and fast stochastic is for a bounce still to come. The rest of the market timing indicators point to a lower to neutral market while the S&P chart shows the market poised to fall through the 100 day moving average. I wrote yesterday that the market direction appears to be a coin toss. That doesn’t seemed to have changed much.

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